According to a report today in Brasil 247, based on a separate article in Valor Econômico, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is focused on preventing what he sees as an imminent U.S. military attack on Venezuela. Planalto, Brazil’s Presidency, is reportedly on a full-scale military, diplomatic, and humanitarian alert to address this danger. Should an attack occur, Lula’s advisers report, he will do everything to prevent an escalation that could destabilize the entire region. This will involve trying to unite all those nations concerned with regional stability, although given divisions on the South American continent, there would be resistance to this from Argentina, Paraguay, Ecuador, and likely Bolivia.
Nonetheless, Planalto believes that Brazil is the only actor able to serve as a buffer between Washington and Caracas, both to prevent a first attack and to prevent the crisis from escalating into a “conflict of large continental proportions.” While Lula believes some progress has been made in convincing Nicolás Maduro to tone down his rhetoric and to emphasize words like “peace” and “dialogue,” Planalto is nonetheless concerned that a U.S. attack is imminent. Should that occur, efforts are underway behind the scenes to persuade Maduro not to escalate, so as to avoid a worse situation. There is some hope that further negotiations with Washington might convince Donald Trump and his War Department to launch only one initial attack, rather than wage a prolonged offensive against multiple Venezuelan targets.
There are other regional difficulties. Aside from the countries that support an invasion, Venezuela’s past provocations against Guyana have not helped, and of course Lula, himself, never recognized the legitimacy of Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election. The risks inherent in the current situation include possible mass migration from Venezuela to Brazil’s 2,000 km border, and to other nations. Bombing one Latin American country ostensibly to fight narco-terrorism sets a dangerous precedent for attacks on other nations in the region, which Brazil sees as a threat to national sovereignty. A U.S. overthrow of Maduro’s government would create extreme uncertainty and volatility in the region. Planalto points out that while Maduro’s government may lack legitimacy, its opposition, led by U.S. tool Maria Corina Machado, is hardly a viable option, lacking any proven leadership ability to unite the nation.
