Ellie Geranmayeh, Deputy Director, Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations goes so far as to invoke the examples of Libya and Syria to make the argument that US military strikes on Iran would be a bad idea.
“The US and Europe should take as many viable steps as they can to support the Iranian population,” Geranmayeh writes in a commentary posted yesterday. “But after the painful experiences in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria, they also need to be realistic about the limits of Western influence and the dangers of prolonged war with Iran. The risks attached to further military intervention are severe, with little assurance this sustainably helps Iranians on the ground.”
She notes that Iran did not resort to escalatory measures during last June’s 12-day war. “But if its regime stability comes under unprecedented existential threat from ground-up pressure domestically and bombing from the skies, the Islamic Republic is likely to use all its cards before they lose them. While Iran will take the biggest hit from such a regional conflict, Trump is unlikely to come out a winner with the type of ‘decisive’ blow he seeks.”
Geranmayeh otherwise buys into the Western narrative about what’s happening inside Iran. She fails to acknowledge that decades of US/Israeli economic and intelligence warfare has been a major factor in creating the conditions that exist there now.
