Though it seems unlikely, the Canadian military is reportedly concerned about what might happen should the U.S. invade Canada. According to a long report in the Globe and Mail on Jan. 20, the Canadian Armed Forces have modeled a hypothetical U.S. military invasion of Canada and the country’s potential response, which includes tactics similar to those employed against Russia and later U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan. It is believed to be the first time in a century that the Canadian Armed Forces have created a model of an American assault on its country, a founding member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and a partner with the U.S. in continental air defense.
The Globe and Mail helpfully explains that a military model is a conceptual and theoretical framework, not a military plan, which is an actionable and step-by-step directive for executing operations.
The Globe and Mail notes that Trump has repeatedly mused about Canada becoming the 51st state. On the weekend, NBC News reported he has been increasingly complaining to aides in recent weeks about Canada’s vulnerability to U.S. adversaries in the Arctic. Steve Bannon, the former Trump chief strategist, who remains close to the President, said Canada is “rapidly changing” and becoming “hostile” to the United States.
Two senior government officials, whom the Globe and Mail did not name, said military planners are modeling a U.S. invasion from the south, expecting American forces to overcome Canada’s strategic positions on land and at sea within a week and possibly as quickly as two days.
Military planners envision an American attack that would follow clear signs from the U.S. military that the two countries’ partnership in NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, was ending, and the U.S. was under new orders to take Canada by force.
Conscription has been ruled out for now, but the level of sacrifice that would be asked of Canadians remains a central topic, the officials said. General Jennie Carignan, Chief of the Defense Staff, has already announced her intention to create a 400,000-plus-strong reserve force of volunteers. The officials said they could be armed or asked to provide disruptions if the U.S. becomes an occupying power.
Canada is also expecting foreign support in the case of a U.S. invasion. “You know if you come after Canada, you are going to have the world coming after you, even more than Greenland. People do care about what happens to Canada, unlike Venezuela,” retired Major General David Fraser, who commanded Canadian troops in Afghanistan alongside the United States, said. “You could actually see German ships and British planes in Canada to reinforce the country’s sovereignty.”