A sharp nationwide decline in overdose deaths may be linked to a disruption in the international fentanyl supply chain that began in 2023, according to a Maryland criminologist writing in the journal Science.
Peter Reuter, a University of Maryland professor who studies global drug markets, told the Baltimore Sun on Jan. 15 that evidence suggests that interruptions in the supply of precursor chemicals from China were a major factor behind the downturn, after fentanyl deaths had risen for roughly a decade.
CDC data show total U.S. overdose deaths fell by more than a third, from more than 111,000 in August 2023 to 69,000 in August 2025. Overdose deaths in Maryland declined more than 40% over the same period, from 2,548 to 1,417.
Reuters said that neither reduced demand nor widespread availability of naloxone could explain the falling death rates. Instead, it was that fentanyl became harder to obtain. Researchers cited Reddit discussions reporting a fentanyl “drought,” along with DEA findings that fentanyl purity and seizures have declined since 2023, even as dealers increasingly mix other potent substances, such as veterinary tranquilizers, into street drugs.
The researchers added that similar supply disruptions were seen in Canada, suggesting a broader international shift in fentanyl production and distribution.
