On Feb. 5, in five days, the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty expires, with no replacement in sight. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko assured reporters on Jan. 30 that its expiration will not be a catastrophe for Russia. “Yes, we support compliance with all restrictions. But if the U.S. chooses a different course, it will not be a disaster for us,” he stated, reported TASS. “We remain confident. We have our own program in place, which will proceed as planned.”
Despite Grushko’s diplomatic response, the expiration of the treaty is a big deal. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev pointed out in a Jan. 26 interview that the expiration means that “Moscow and Washington will be without arms control agreements for the first time in over half a century, and without any negotiating process to develop any new ones,” Kommersant described. Medvedev warned that Russia will respond “proportionately” to what appears to be an intended accelerated arms race coming from the Trump White House and the European Union.
Russian journalist Valentin Loginov argues in an analysis published in RT on Jan. 29, that the biggest danger from the expiration of the treaty won’t be a race to expand warhead stockpiles. Rather, the experts he consulted are more concerned about U.S. missile defense plans and the loss of transparency.
Generally, experts see little risk of a rapid increase in deployed nuclear arms, as the system of nuclear deterrence developed over the past decades has functioned quite effectively, Loginov writes. Therefore, a sudden shift toward an arms race between the two nations seems unlikely, according to Pavel Sharikov, a researcher at the European integration studies department of the Russian Academy of Science’s Institute of Europe. “However, the United States may begin developing missile defense systems to bolster its nuclear deterrent—that’s almost certain. Trump has already announced plans for a Golden Dome missile defense system, and his ambitions to acquire Greenland fit into this trend,” Sharikov said.
The most significant blow to the arms control system after the expiration of New START will be a general decline in transparency and trust between nuclear powers, Loginov writes further. Beyond quantitative and qualitative limitations on weapons, the treaty included provisions for inspections at each other’s nuclear bases, data exchange, notifications regarding the number of systems and their status, and demonstrations of new types and variants of systems covered by the agreement.
Following the escalation of tensions between the U.S. (and the West in general) and Russia, and the West’s explicit goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on the country, Russia could not continue to uphold the treaty’s transparency obligations. Consequently, in 2023, Russia suspended its participation in the treaty, while maintaining its commitments to limiting nuclear arsenals. Thus, one of the primary adverse effects of the collapse of New START occurred even before the treaty officially expired.
Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the lack of transparency will ultimately make it more difficult for both Russia and the U.S. to predict the necessary development of their nuclear deterrent forces.
“The transparency that these agreements were supposed to ensure is disappearing. They are necessary not only to reduce and limit arsenals but also to provide predictability, which is essential for the development of national strategic nuclear forces. Without such an agreement, neither [Russia] nor the United States will have this [predictability],” Klimov told RT.
There are also other factors that Loginov cites, but missile defense and the loss of transparency are the two most important.
