The gist of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Executive Order on Jan. 29 announcing tariffs on any nation that dares ship any oil to Cuba, is that Cuba will be blockaded and starved until the government is overthrown. That means creating conditions of strangulation on the island like those the Netanyahu government imposed on Gaza.
Accurate statistics are hard to come by, but Kpler reports that in 2025 Cuba consumed about 112,000 bpd of oil, of which they produced only 50,000 or so domestically. The remainder was imported from Mexico (44% of total imports), Venezuela (25%), Russia (15%) and a tiny bit from Algeria. But in 2026, Venezuelan shipments are at zero, and now Trump’s intention is to stop Mexico’s exports of oil to Cuba.
This means that Cuba will be forced to survive on less than half the oil it normally consumes.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is being put in a total vice by the White House Executive Order—which is, in part, its intent. Mexico’s traditional policy of maintaining diplomatic relations and normal trade with Cuba over decades is a very big deal for Mexico, across the political spectrum, and will not be easily abandoned. On the other hand, Trump is threatening tariffs against Mexico, pulling the plug on the USMCA (which is being renegotiated later this year), not to mention the threatened U.S. military strikes into Mexico, supposedly against the drug cartels. It’s too early to predict what Sheinbaum will do.
What follows are some choice quotes from the EO of Jan. 29 (which was drafted with significant input from the virulently anti-Cuban Secretary of State, Marco Rubio):
