In a Feb. 2 post on TruthSocial, President Donald Trump wrote that he had just spoken with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and that they had reached a major deal, under which the U.S. would lift its 25% tariff on Indian imports, and that Modi “agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela… The Prime Minister also committed to ‘BUY AMERICAN,’ at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products.”
Although Indian authorities confirmed that there had indeed been a useful conversation between the two leaders, and that a major agreement had been reached including the dropping of the U.S. tariff, Modi’s office said nothing—one way or the other—about stopping oil purchases from Russia. Nor did they confirm the extremely sensitive issue of opening their domestic market to American agricultural exports, since it is widely understood that this would bankrupt large portions of Indian agriculture, and lead to explosive political turmoil (as it has in the past) that could well topple the government.
Various media accounts now report that it is unlikely that Indian will stop Russian oil imports altogether, although some reduction is already underway. The London Economist, for example, wrote that “Mr. Trump’s bombastic claims are unlikely to be realized. Indian imports of Russian oil were already declining before the deal, partly owing to stricter American sanctions. Yet the country regards its energy-sourcing decisions as a matter of national sovereignty. The Kremlin said that it had heard nothing from India about cutting purchases after the deal was announced. They are unlikely to quickly go to zero. The notion that India could soon buy $500bn of American goods is even less credible. In 2024, the latest available, its total imports from America, including goods and services, amounted to $83bn.”
