In a lengthy piece in the Council on Foreign Relations magazine Foreign Affairs, author Liana Fix represents the liberal establishment’s fear that if Germany becomes a military power independent of the European Union, and if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party gains political influence within Germany, Berlin could decide to ally with Russia, leave the EU and project power against its neighbors. In order to prevent this, Germany should accept what Fix calls “golden handcuffs,” i.e., submit to further supranational EU integration through common debt.
At current investment rates, she writes, Germany “will again be a great military power before 2030.” The rising electoral power of the AfD might lead to an “AfD-controlled Germany” that “might use its power to bully or coerce other countries, leading to tensions and conflict.”
France “does not like the idea of Germany being Europe’s military powerhouse because it believes that’s France’s role. It will closely watch for any signs that Germany might aspire to get nuclear weapons—the only remaining domain of French superiority. Some Polish officials fear that a militarily powerful Germany might one day feel free to restore amicable relations with Russia. Poles, and not only those who support the populist Law and Justice party, have also voiced concerns that a dominant Germany will marginalize the role of smaller EU states and could use its power to coerce them.”
The article then reviews the AfD’s positions on Ukraine, EU and NATO, to conclude that if the AfD gets enough electoral clout to condition or even lead a government, it would be very bad news. “If it wins federal power, the AfD will use the German military exactly as Thatcher feared: to project power against Germany’s neighbors.”
(Remember that it was Britain’s Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, together with French President François Mitterrand, who forced Germany to hand over its monetary sovereignty as a condition for East and West Germany’s reunification.)
