Trump administration officials have discussed whether to seize additional tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil but have held off, concerned about Tehran’s near-certain retaliation and the impact on global oil markets, The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing unnamed US officials. Supposedly, such a move would squeeze Iranian oil revenues, “expanding the aggressive strategy the White House put in place in December in the Caribbean.”
Exercising such an option–one of several the White House is said to be debating–is rife with potential consequences, not the least of which is Iranian retaliation. Iranian options include seizing oil tankers belonging to U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf or, in the extreme, closing the Strait of Hormuz through mining or other measures. “Either move is likely to drive up oil prices sharply, risking a political firestorm for the White House,” the Journal notes.
A closure of the strait by Iran would likely prompt a U.S. military response, though reopening the waterway if it was mined by Iran could take time, analysts told The Journal. “Blocking the strait isn’t in anyone’s interest, including Iran’s. But if they feel that they’re cornered, they’ll do it. And they have the logistics to do it,” said Bader Al-Saif, an academic at Kuwait University. The rest of the Gulf countries would face major challenges exporting oil, he said.
“It’s not Venezuela. I think he knows this,” Al-Saif said of Trump.
