As the war in Iran rolls into its 12th day, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly taking on a central importance. Trump’s offer last week to underwrite insurance for commercial vessels transiting the Strait seems not to have jump started shipping, and there are reports that only two vessels have made it through the strait since that were not linked to either Iran or Russia, reported the Guardian. One of those that braved the journey since the President’s announcement of emergency measures went “dark” by switching off its transponder, and a second signaled it was Chinese owned and crewed. Only eight other vessels are believed to have entered or exited the Gulf through the strait over the weekend and they all appear to have links to Iran or Russia.
“Iran is still displaying pretty comprehensive capabilities to strike targets and vessels if they want to,” said Matthew Wright, the lead freight analyst at Kpler. While he was hopeful that a diplomatic solution would soon be reached, he also worried about the scenario where Iran “operates a more decentralized warfare approach, more akin to what the Houthis did, where they have very, very flat command structures, in which you can take out leaders and they continue to operate very effectively, then this could take months.”
Three more vessels were reportedly struck Wednesday in the region, while a spokesperson for the IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters said it will not allow “a litre of oil” through the Strait, reported Al-Jazeera.
