A classified assessment by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), completed about a week before the February 28 strikes, concluded that even a large-scale U.S. military campaign was unlikely to dislodge Iran’s entrenched military-religious-political establishment, a finding that directly contradicts the Trump administration’s stated goal of “cleaning out” Iran’s leadership and installing a ruler of its choosing.
The Washington Post bases its reporting on three sources “familiar with the report’s contents.” The NIC, which coordinates assessments across all U.S. intelligence agencies, considered the outcomes of both a decapitation strike and a broader assault on Iran’s leadership and institutions. In both scenarios, the NIC concluded that Iran’s succession protocols were designed to ensure continuity of power, and that it was “unlikely” that opposition groups would seize power.