Gas prices on the Amsterdam market have surged 50%, from 35 € to 50 € per MWh, in the last two days. It is still far away from the historical level of 350 €, reached in August 2022, but… the curve is as steep as the 2022 one. Experts are warning that Qatar’s decision to stop production means a 20% shortage for the next four weeks even if the war stopped today. That is, time is needed to restart cryogenic processes without creating thermic shocks, they say.
Irish journalist Gerry Nolan reports that sources indicate it would take a month to get back to normal levels of production, meaning that even if the war were to end today, global gas markets would continue to experience shortages for weeks.
He reiterates: “Even if it stopped right now … the damage is already baked in, the supply chain already severed, the cryogenic infrastructure already in shutdown sequence—because the cryogenic nature of LNG requires specialised storage maintaining temperatures of approximately -160°C, making it impossible to simply store excess production in temporary facilities, and once disruptions occur, restarting operations requires weeks of careful, sequential rehabilitation to avoid thermal shock to the entire system.”
