Russia stands to lose more than it gains from the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, according to Andrei Kortunov, founding director of the Russian International Affairs Council, writing for China’s Observer Network.
Kortunov acknowledges some tactical upsides for Moscow: the war diverts Western attention from Ukraine and draws down U.S. ammunition stocks, and the oil price surge generates new export revenue. But he argues these benefits are temporary and outweighed by deeper strategic costs.
Iran was Russia’s closest strategic partner, bound by a 20-year cooperation agreement signed just last January. Khamenei’s assassination removes a personal ally of Putin and destabilizes a relationship Moscow had been cultivating through BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the planned North-South transport corridor linking Russia to South Asia through Iran. And many Iranians will resent that Moscow failed to stop the attack, Kortunov says.
The war also complicates Russia’s carefully maintained neutrality across Middle Eastern fault lines—between Arabs and Persians, Sunnis and Shiites, Gulf monarchies and Tehran—a balancing act that has served Moscow well since the Cold War and is now under severe strain.
Perhaps most damaging for the Kremlin, the strikes have poisoned the atmosphere around U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations. After Iran’s experience at the negotiating table with the U.S., many Russians now view talks as nothing more than cover for war preparation, making it harder to end the conflict in Ukraine.
Kortunov’s bottom line: Russia’s interest lies in a quick end to the fighting and a return to negotiations, much as happened after last June’s 12-day war. “This time,” he writes, “will be much more difficult.”
