The ‘Coming Credit Crunch'

‘This Seeking Alpha article is interesting for essentially writing off “private credit.” It leads with a UBS Bank analysis of the default rate in private credit heading from the current 7-8% to 15%, far above comparable bank loans in 2007-08 before the crash. And while the author admits that private credit is only $2 trillion or so, he links it to mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on commercial office space, and to small business loans in the “fintech” sector. Both of these have comparable (7-8% or higher) default and delinquency rates now, so the potential crunch “trigger” is more like $8 trillion.