Jan Mainka is editor of the German-language weekly Budapester Zeitung. EIR reached him by phone to get an assessment of the political situation in Hungary on the eve of the April 12 national elections. Out of our discussion, a quite different picture emerged than the one offered by Western mainstream media. Mainka’s newspaper is independent, but, as you will see from the interview, he is not “neutral.”
Our interlocutor confirmed what other sources had told EIR, concerning the biased methodology used in reporting opinion polls, according to which the opposition candidate has a significant advantage against incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
According to Mainka, a 55% result for Orbán is a credible forecast. This is based on internal Fidesz party polls, as well as turnouts to election rallies. For instance, on March 15, the national day, two rallies took place in Budapest: one by opposition leader Magyar and one by Orbán. While some 150,000 people joined the Magyar rally, Orbán’s rally had the participation of 180,000 people, and this, despite the fact that Budapest and other large cities are Magyar’s main voter reserve. Magyar can count on left-liberal voters coming from the university and other layers, for instance. Such figures have been produced from data, such as the number of cellphones that connected to the cell tower. Other interesting data, Mainka pointed out, is the number of followers on Facebook and other social media, where Orbán’s party, Fidesz, has a clear advantage. Last but not least, internal polls, which cannot be published, are not so bad.
Fidesz members and activists are eager to defend what their party has built and will do everything possible, “within the limits of legality,” to prevent that “a foreign puppet should destroy it.” However, they will never commit abuses of power, as is done in Germany against the AfD, Mainka stressed. “We don’t have burnt cars, people beaten up or threatened, destruction of party offices.” There is no violence in Hungary, at least not from Fidesz. You cannot say the same about the opposition though: in downtown Budapest, all Fidesz posters are systematically torn down, while opposition posters are not. There is an “aggressiveness, a propensity for violence” among Tisza supporters, which, however, is backfiring: The population sees this and does not like it. “The Hungarian people are peaceful. It is not like the French, who like to pick a fight, including with police….”
A victory by Orbán, however, means that Hungary’s confrontation with the EU will continue. “Brussels wants to strangle us—as long as they can strangle us,” said Mainka. “Orbán will stay true to himself, pursuing a path of peace—just as he has done since February 2022, always talking about peace, peace, peace, negotiating, negotiating—enough already, those poor souls who are being killed every day; that will continue. As for migration, Hungary’s borders will remain closed to illegal migration, and this multilateral foreign policy will also continue, meaning he’ll aim for good cooperation with all the world’s powers, but also with smaller countries—we have very good relations with Russia, China, but also with the Arab world and so on—and all that will continue to be cultivated, and if the EU keeps isolating itself further, we’ll maintain an open foreign policy here.”
