That is the headline on an article published by Dmitri Trenin, the widely respected Russian strategic analyst who has just been appointed as the new president of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a leading think-tank associated with that country’s Foreign Ministry.
Trenin’s analysis is sober and accurate, if incomplete—lacking a necessary evaluation of the context of the systemic breakdown crisis of the trans-Atlantic system, and London’s efforts to preserve it at all costs, which is shaping current developments.
Trenin wrote: “A ceasefire under conditions where the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control suggests that Tehran has not backed down. Washington, in effect, has.” He added: “Four conclusions have begun to emerge:
“1. Iran has held firm…
“2. The Gulf states have been exposed… US security guarantees have been shown to be unreliable. This lesson will not be lost on Washington’s allies…
