In its announcement that it would withdraw from OPEC effective [May 1]( https://eir.news/2026/04/news/uae-quits-opec-to-produce-over-the-opec-limits/), the United Arab Emirates stated that it did so because it would better be able to follow its own schedule for the amount of oil it wanted to sell, without being constrained by adhering to OPEC production quotas, which are often influenced by Saudi Arabia. Some have reported that this decision could damage OPEC, perhaps irreparably.
While the U.A.E.’s withdrawal from OPEC certainly involves oil—it holds 6% of the world’s oil reserves—there are much broader issues that played a decisive role in U.A.E.’s decision. The U.A.E. had been centrally involved in the Abraham Accords, that were signed by Israel, the U.A.E., and Bahrain on September 15, 2020. They are also the leading Gulf state involved in the Trump Board of Peace, formally established in January 2026. While the Board has ostensibly been set up to “aid Palestinians in Gaza,” in fact, the Board’s plan is to establish an iron “‘guarantee for Israel’s security,” and build a “Riviera in Gaza,” replete with expensive high-rise apartments, gated communities, ritzy shops, financial services, all with little room for average Gazan citizens.
However, the larger plan for the U.A.E. appears for it be the financial and banking center of the whole of the Arabian Gulf—a position it now holds, having passed Saudi Arabia—and of Central Asia as well, and eventually one of the biggest in the world, to manage gigantic speculative flows, and crypto, of which it is already a world leader. It domiciles resorts and tourism, for the super-rich, while remaining a staunch military ally of the United States, with agreements with Israel. Of the seven emirates that comprise the U.A.E., Abu Dhabi and Dubai hold the most power; the Al Nahyan family is the ruling royal house of Abu Dhabi’s emirate, with a fortune estimated at more than $300 billion, and the House of Maktoum rules over the Dubai emirate.
Of the U.A.E.’s 11 million people, only 1.2 million, or 11%, are Emiratis; the rest are brought into the country to work, doing construction and other work that Emiratis do not do, or to work in fin-tech.
Critically, the U.A.E. investment funds are intertwined with those of U.S. President Donald Trump; his two sons, Eric and Don, Jr.; Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law; and Steve Witkoff. Kushner and Witkoff are two of the U.S.’s leading envoys in the Iranian and Palestinian peace processes.
The U.A.E. is a member of the BRICS and the BRICS-led New Development Bank. This has some influence on the U.A.E.. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are attempting to bring the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council into a more rational relation with Iran, other nations in the Middle East, and the world, to end the Iran war.
But the U.A.E.’s break with OPEC, and with Saudi Arabia, may affect, and perhaps offset that diplomacy.