An ongoing earthquake swarm in the “Campi Flegrei” zone west of Naples raises the issue of earthquake forecasting and evacuation plans. Over 2000 people have been evacuated from the area after a long seismic activity that has culminated (so far) with a 4.7 shock on July 31. 4.7 is not a big earthquake, but being the epicenter quite close to the surface, it hits with more power than comparable quakes with a deep epicenter. Over 900 homes have been condemned. The Campi Flegrei is a large volcanic caldera composed of 24 volcanoes, most of which are under the Gulf of Naples.
The current seismic swarm is a warning for Italian authorities. Over half a million people live and work in the area, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. The relocation of the current 2000-plus homeless already represents a problem, not to mention plans for relocating the entire population of ca. 500,000, which do not exist.
