Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters and Producers has warned Reuters that Ukrainian drone attacks on ships and port infrastructure could bring “a complete blockage of export corridors in the Black Sea basin.” The shortfall in Russian wheat could reach 30-35 million tonnes this season—about 15% of world wheat trade—which the union says cannot be made up from other suppliers. It projects free-on-board wheat rising to $340-370 a tonne with the prospect of passing $400, and is explicit about where that lands: the Middle East and Africa depend on Black Sea supply, and “in the poorest countries, this will trigger famine.”
A drone strike caused “significant damage” to a major grain terminal at the Russian port of Taman. Russia’s Defense Ministry says its own forces struck 31 vessels linked to Ukraine’s military in one week, including 23 cargo ships and four bulk carriers. Ukraine’s largest farming union has issued the mirror-image warning about Russian strikes near Odessa during the harvest. The UN-brokered grain corridor is effectively shut.
