An opinion poll just carried out by the Society of Market and Social Research (GMS) found the Christian Democrats at an all-time low of 20 percent, whereas the AfD is seen at an all-time high of 30 percent. Third place is occupied by the Greens with 14 percent; SPD and Linke have 11 percent each. That would be the likely result if early national elections were to be held this coming Sunday, and it would still make a three-party coalition against the AfD possible, if CDU/CSU, Greens and SPD found common ground. But it would be an outright, unprecedented disaster, and likely worsening, because it would be a government of the exact parties that have created this crisis situation.

The September 6 election disaster for the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt and the prospect of two more disasters in the Sept. 20 elections in Mecklenburg-Prepomerania and Berlin, have put CDU party chairman and Chancellor Friedrich Merz on the spot, with his latest rating of just 14 percent and increasing unrest in the party membership,. Trying to outflank the rising ferment for his replacement, Merz is calling for a special crisis session of the CDU party presidium on election night, as soon as the results from the two states are in. Merz views this as an “indirect no confidence vote,” deciding whether he stays or rather gets replaced by another leading CDU politician. Whoever that will be still has to go through an orderly no-confidence vote in the national parliament, hoping for all parties except the AfD voting him (or her) in as new Chancellor. Should that fail, snap early elections would be on the agenda.