Oct. 23—The 177th consecutive weekly meeting of the International Peace Coalition (IPC) opened with remarks by Dennis Small, EIRʼs Ibero-American intelligence director. He reported that one week prior, on Oct. 16, Pope Leo XIV had picked up the phone from his hospital bed shortly after undergoing lung cancer surgery, to call Russian President Vladimir Putin, reportedly to discuss the need for ongoing mutually respectful dialogue of cultures, civilizations, and religions to find solutions to the global crisis. Small characterized as a “cover story” media reports that the Pope then called Ukrainian acting President Volodymyr Zelensky and is talking to both sides to see what can be done about the war in Ukraine. Small suggested that “there is far more involved with this” than what we know from media accounts.

He noted that the relations historically between the Vatican and Russia have been very difficult and that moreover, the Vatican is not, and cannot be, the mediator in any Russia-Ukraine settlement. However, Russian officials, such as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, have reported that the recent visits of Archbishop Paul Gallagher and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi to Russia have been preludes to the kind of discussions that are necessary. More to the point, Small said, is the international meeting for peace sponsored by the Vatican, “Unarmed and Disarming Peace,” in Assisi, Italy, from October 25 to 27. This meeting will take up the danger of nuclear war, in which the Pope has taken an active interest.

Small then turned to U.S. President Donald Trump’s presently acrimonious relations with Zelensky over Trumpʼs desperate turn toward Putin to secure diesel fuel for U.S. citizens weeks away from the U.S. midterm elections—after his own mad rush to war with Iran, had caused the global shortage of fuel in the first place. He noted that a three-way summit between presidents Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and China’s Xi Jinping at the Asia‑Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit in Shenzhen November 18-19, 2026, is increasingly likely, a promising development that could open tremendous opportunities to address both the strategic crisis and the underlying economic issues.

However, Small cautioned, we “must temper our evaluation,” for several reasons. First, Putin, when asked in a recent interview to respond to Zelensky’s “great offer” to freeze the conflict with Russia along the current front lines, even if that means losing 25% of Ukrainian territory, responded that after the relevant provinces in the Donbass and Novorossiya voted in 2022 to join the Russian Federation, “this isn’t their [Ukraine’s] territory”—a fact ignored by Russia’s ill-wishers in Europe who constantly talk of the Russian threat and ramp up spending for war, against the wishes of their own populations. Second, when asked about the prospects for a three-way discussion between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, Putin “left the door open” for it, but only after the Nov. 3 U.S. elections—and with the provision that the goal of the talks be to ensure the long-term security of Ukraine and Russia. Finally, despite Trumpʼs present inclination to partially lift sanctions to allow Russian diesel fuel imports, neither the United States, Wall Street, nor the City of London have shown any inclination to change the disastrous economic policies which are the underlying cause of the war danger.

Is Trump Considering the Nuclear Option?

On the situation in Iran, Small referred to the recent article by retired U.S. Army Col. Douglas Macgregor, “Is Trump Considering the Nuclear Option?” The article quotes from nuclear war enthusiast Elbridge Colby, the so-called U.S. “Under Secretary of War.” Small remarked on the mass ferment in the populations of the “Atlantic” nations, noting in particular the significance of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)’s publicly announced decision that they will not endorse candidates, because these endorsements have become the “kiss of death.” He concluded that the physical universe works in a way consistent with 15th-Century Cardinal Nicholas of Cusa’s conception of the “coincidence of opposites,” and that policies pursued must be in the common interests of mankind as a whole.

Prof. Georgy Toloraya is the director of the Center for Asian Strategy at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He expressed his support for a discussion of a new strategic architecture at the upcoming talks in Shenzhen. He said that he was working up a “global taxonomy of power,” and that although the United States and China “are the ones who write the rules now,” there is the possibility of a new set of arrangements. He disagreed with characterizations of the summit as a possible “New Yalta.” He worried that the European governments are “instigating hatred” toward Russia and that Europe has “become a sick man of the world.”

A video interview with Peter Kuznick, a professor of history and director of the Nuclear Studies Institute at American University in Washington, D.C., was presented next. He offered a survey of statements by leading figures in various nations, in which the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons is openly discussed. Iranian leaders are now calling for the development of nuclear weapons as the only thing that could deter further attacks by the United States and Israel. Among Americans, according to recent polling data, 87% oppose the war with Iran. He called the Pope “a voice of sanity who speaks for the planet,” and called for the inclusion of Zelensky in negotiations between Russia and the United States on Ukraine.

Richard Anderson Falk is professor emeritus of international law at Princeton University, Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor’s chairman of the board of trustees, and a former United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories from 2008 to 2014. He said that Pope Leo XIV’s Assisi initiative establishes that the center of moral clarity in the world today is no longer with the secretary-general of the UN, or with secular leaders of nations—with the exception of China. He said that Trump’s endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu puts him on the record as supporting the most transparent case of genocide since the Nazi Holocaust, and posed the question: What sort of message does this send to the younger generation? He concluded by saying that when you invest so much in warmongering, while displacing vulnerable members of your society, that is evidence of insanity.

Epicenter of a Global Earthquake

Jacques Cheminade, president of the Solidarité et Progrès French political party and three-time candidate for French President, described France as the “epicenter of a global earthquake” of civil unrest. He described the genesis of the street demonstrations, beginning with legitimate grievances but then followed by the deployment of agents provocateurs to discredit the movement by launching violent attacks. “The right and far-right reacted to this by conflating students with looters.” He described the “increasing militarization of law enforcement,” using brutal tactics against protesters and tear-gassing members of an orchestra that was attempting to peacefully perform music at a rally.

François Martin, French intelligence strategist, said that we are witnessing “the battle of the number two” in the upcoming French election. He provided a detailed and complex analysis of the maneuvering for power by the various French parties and personalities. He then expressed his satisfaction at recent U.S.-Russia negotiations, describing them as the emergence of a path toward de-escalation in Ukraine, which latter regime he described as “almost finished.” He concurred with the description of a possible Trump/Putin/Xi summit as a New Yalta, and commented on the European attitude toward this: “If you are not sitting at the table, then you are on the menu.”

Dennis Small praised Kuznick’s comments, but noted humorously that he begged to differ on the question of Zelensky’s participation in the negotiations.

Larry Johnson, former CIA intelligence official and a member of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), responded to Small, saying, “I totally agree with you about the cocaine clown of Kiev.” He warned that the evacuation of U.S. personnel from the Middle East is a clear indication that the United States is planning a major escalation. The Saudi elite is also engaged in a hasty evacuation. The 31 regional commanders of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been authorized to operate autonomously in the event of major attack, and to launch attacks on their own initiative against U.S. and Israeli targets. The Ansar Allah (Houthis) “are just beating the daylights out of the Saudis,” he said.

Johnson also debunked the Trump administration’s claim that oil is flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz. “I don’t recall a time in history when you have had such a disconnect between political leaders and populace.” Trump had intended to wait until after the elections to attack Iran, but then “Secretary of War” Pete Hegseth went to Israel, where he received the “Bibi bamboozlement” and returned with a demand for immediate military action.

Small commented on the “disconnect,” saying that this is what leads to revolutionary situations that open the door to change, either for the better, or for the worse. “This is where what the Pope is doing is of particular importance.”

Johnson predicted that the midterm elections will be “a complete disaster” for Trump. He also anticipated a major reaction against the corruption of the Trump family members who have been extraordinarily arrogant in enriching themselves at the expense of the public.

Discussion

Small commented on the Brazilian elections to be held on Sunday, Oct. 25, calling attention to the massive and clearly spontaneous upsurge of youth activism and putting this in the context of global unrest. He presented a graphic that depicts the network of corruption around Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, with individuals including Susana Cordeiro Guerra, who is the godmother of Arbella Kushner, the eldest child of President Trumpʼs son-in-law Jared Kushner, and the wife of the aforementioned nuclear war enthusiast, Elbridge Colby.

Small concluded by saying that “the biggest corruption is the existing financial system.” He recalled the Reichstag Fire of Feb. 27, 1933, and the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks as “outrageous, desperate provocations” launched by parties who were trying to stay in power in the face of an onrushing financial collapse. He posed the possibility of collaboration between nations of the North and South, as the way out of the present crisis. The injection of this idea into the present mass ferment can tip the scales toward a positive outcome.