The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook, released in Bangkok on Oct. 13, indicates that 32 countries now account for 95% of what they measure as global growth, down from 54 in April. “The outlook is highly uneven,” said IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro, and “that resilience is reaching its limits.” Oil averages $96 a barrel this year, up 41%, on an assumption that Hormuz reopens in March 2027 and shipping normalizes by October 2027; in the adverse case, $130 oil through early 2027 and global inflation of 5.2% next year. Saudi Arabia’s economy is expected to contract 3.3% this year (July forecast: +1.7%), Iran’s by 7.6%, the UAE 3.9%, Iraq 16%, Kuwait 16.7%, Qatar 15.6%. Global inflation is 4.7%. The Fund’s prescription is to “restore fiscal space.” It also warns that if AI productivity gains fail to appear, U.S. GDP will be majorly affected. The AI boom is providing the basis for the supposed growth, while war and soaring energy costs impose physical economic costs.