The Trump-Putin “deal” for six months of relaxed sanctions on Russian diesel fuel exports, under the Treasury Department’s General License 135, has raised questions in both countries, and lays bare some of the wild price disparities and manipulation in today’s markets.

Inside Russia, an immediate question was how the country could afford to export 1.8 million metric tons of diesel fuel in the next three months, given that most diesel exports were banned on July 8 of this year because of concern over shortages. Alexander Kots, a journalist at Komsomolskaya Pravda, explained the situation in a Telegram post today.

Russia’s diesel production in recent years has been around 85 million [metric] tons, of which 46 to 52 million tons were used for domestic consumption—"tractors, long-haul trucks, locomotives, and military convoys combined.” (A volume of 7.46 barrels of diesel is the conventional quantity corresponding to a weight of 1 metric ton.)

In 2025 Russia could export around 30 million tons; the figure is an estimate, since the data has been classified since 2024. Thus, wrote Kots, the 1.8 million tons of exports anticipated for October-December under the “deal,” is less than one month’s exports before the ban. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has stated that exports will eventually reach (return to) 3 million tons per month.