Dmitriy Trenin, the veteran Russian strategic analyst and current President of the Russian International Affairs Council, published an article on Oct. 23 in which he expressed cautious optimism about what the scheduled tripartite summit among the presidents of Russia, China, and the United States could achieve, when the three leaders meet on the sidelines of the Nov. 18-19 APEC summit in Shenzhen, China.
“The US president has mentioned that an unprecedented trilateral meeting with Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen next month would make sense if it were focused on denuclearization,” Trenin wrote. “The fact that for the first time ever the leaders of these three countries are discussing the possibility of a trilateral meeting is more than just a topic for pundits to mull on air. This may not be the dawn of a new world order, but it could be a small step to balance wars with diplomacy.”
In the same article, which was headlined “Can Russia Broker a New US-Iran Deal?", Trenin reviewed the recent dense diplomatic activity between Russia and Iran, including Russia’s willingness—and unique capability—to help broker a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran. “Moscow’s general attitude towards that program [of Iran] has been clear. It supports Iranian ambition to have domestic nuclear energy generation; it is currently building two new units of the nuclear power plant in Bushehr. But it opposes Iranian development or acquisition of nuclear weapons. It certainly doesn’t want nuclear proliferation so close to its borders.”
He added: “Helping the US reach a new nuclear deal with Iran would be clearly in Russia’s interest…. Russia hopes that peace would unlock its major logistical project, the International North-South Transport Corridor [INSTC] to India, which passes through Iran.”
President Vladimir Putin and Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, discussed the INSTC during their three-hour discussion on November 3. Earlier Russian-Iranian contacts during the past month included Putin’s talks with President Masoud Pezeshkian; a two-day visit by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Tehran, which focused on economic cooperation as the basis for regional stability; and Pezeshkian’s participation in the Oct. 26 Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Moscow.
