The war over the Strait of Hormuz claimed the lives of commercial seafarers Tuesday, as the United States launched its fifth wave of strikes on Iran in a week and moved to reimpose a full naval blockade of Iranian ports at 4:00 p.m. ET today—an act of war in itself.
The UAE said Iranian cruise missiles struck two tankers in the strait, the Mombasa B and Al Bahyah, killing one mariner and wounding eight. The IRGC said it disabled the ships after they ignored warnings and, “under U.S. encouragement,” entered a mined corridor—a rare admission from Tehran that the strait has indeed been mined. Overnight CENTCOM struck from Bushehr to Bandar Abbas; Iran answered with missiles and drones on U.S. bases in Bahrain—the Fifth Fleet’s own facilities—Oman, and Jordan, in what it calls “Operation Victory 2,” claims not independently confirmed.
The economic war escalates in tandem, if erratically. Trump floated a 20% toll on cargo transiting the strait—an about-face on a century of freedom-of-navigation doctrine—drawing a mocking reply from Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi: “Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER. 20% is of course too much. We will be fair.” Within a day Trump reversed again, announcing he would “replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals” that the Gulf states will make into the U.S.—"MASSIVE” ones, he promised. The demand for payment was simply transformed from a toll on the world’s shippers to tribute from the Gulf monarchies. Oil prices, meanwhile, are up roughly 10% on the week, Hormuz traffic has fallen by half, and war-risk insurance has doubled toward 5% of hull value.
Above it hangs the gravest turn of all. Trump has threatened to “take out” Pickaxe Mountain, the deeply buried nuclear site near Natanz that experts say is beyond the reach of any conventional U.S. bunker-buster. The threat therefore leaves, unspoken, only one instrument that could reach it: a tactical nuclear weapon—the first use in war since 1945.
And the fire is spreading. Yemen’s four-year truce is teetering after the Aden government claimed the strike on Sana’a airport that blocked an Iranian aircraft returning the Houthi delegation from Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral; the Houthis answered with missiles on Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport.
