Initially, the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine rollout targeted 21 million healthcare workers and 3 million residents and staff at long-term care facilities. Hospitals were the main distribution vehicle for the former, and two pharmacies, CVS and Walgreens, for the latter. On Feb 11, under the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program, 6,500 participating pharmacies were sent a total of 1 million doses of vaccine (or around 150 doses per pharmacy) — a baby step. However, it is a key first step, kicking the tires on an important new distribution capability.
The Washington Examiner spoke with Kurt Proctor of the National Community Pharmacists Association, who told the daily: “We haven’t even scratched the surface when it comes to pharmacies. There is a lot of capacity. In terms of speeding up vaccinations, we just have to get enough vaccines into the hands of pharmacists.” There are about 40,000 pharmacies signed up in the program. Proctor estimates that they could distribute around 140 million doses/month (or about 4.7 million/day). Presently, the U.S. is distributing about 1.6 million/day.
The U.S. can expect 154 million more Pfizer and Moderna doses by March 31 and possibly another 10-30 million of the new Johnson & Johnson (J&J) one-dose vaccine. That is over the next 49 days, so it requires the distribution of an average of over 3 million doses/day. We’ll probably need to be dealing with around 4 million/day by mid-March, unless we want vaccines sitting in refrigerators unused. Proctor’s estimated pharmacy capacity (4.7 million/day) makes the pharmacy capacity perhaps the key addition for allowing the country to catch up with the production schedule.
Once that capability is fully mobilized, the U.S. should have the doses for the desired 70% of the population to be vaccinated, a level for an estimated herd immunity effect, by the end of April. That requires 182 million vaccinations — which involves the 30 million one-dose J&J vaccines and 304 million of the two-dose vaccines from the Pfizer/Moderna duo. The March 31 delivery deadline involves 220 million of those doses; so the next 84 million doses achieves that goal. If we’ve reached the 4 million/day level, then it would take the first three weeks of April to achieve the requisite doses. Full immunity of course won’t be achieved until the last of the 182 million Americans get their second dose sometime in May, from the doses delivered in April.
So, be nice to your local pharmacist.
