The Delta variant of the COVID-19 virus is quickly destroying any hope that Africa, with its virtually non-existent healthcare systems, might somehow escape the wrath of the global pandemic. Able to withstand the first two “waves” of the virus, largely by virtue of its isolation, Africa is finding the transmissibility of the new variant has overcome that (sole) defense.
A report by U.S.-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), “Devastating Human Toll as the Delta COVID Variant Takes Hold in Africa,” warns that “the India scenario looms” for the continent. It documents that, while peak cases between the first and second waves almost doubled — going from 18,164 cases/day in July 2020, to 32,750 cases/day in January 2021— fatalities more than tripled, going from a cumulative total of 17,104 to (an additional) 56,288. Cases/day during the third wave have already topped 37,000/day, and fatalities are nearing 74,000, with the winter just beginning.
Africa fared well during the first wave partly because they had ample warning, and took effective evasive actions, enforcing strict lockdowns and travel prohibitions, and built extra capacity, especially hospital beds (as in South Africa). By mobilizing all spare capabilities to fight the pandemic, they succeeded in saving lives.
The limitations of Africa’s “in-depth” health care capabilities are now becoming apparent, however, as 26 countries have seen their case numbers jump over 50% just since June, 17 of which have confirmed the presence of the Delta variant. South Africa, which bore the brunt of the first and second waves, is now joined by previously passed over states, including Uganda, Tunisia and Namibia, all of which have even fewer resources at their disposal than South Africa.
The ACSS report warns that both regions, Africa and India — which have similar total populations of 1.3 billion, but vastly different land areas/population densities — could face the same outcome, although Africa’s caseload is currently nowhere near India’s peak of 391,000 cases/day. What Africa has to fear is that their death rate for the third wave is already almost double what India’s was at its worst, 2.58% compared to India’s 1.32%.
