The SARS-CoV-2 virus has been thriving in colder climes over the last several weeks, in part because people spend more time indoors. While official new cases of COVID-19 have dropped in many areas of the world, Western Europe and Russia have driven the overall numbers back up to around 500,000/day. Russia stopped several weeks of climbing cases by enforcing paid vacations from work from 7–14 days at the beginning of November. The rise in cases has halted there and they are, at least temporarily, receding from the 40,000/day peak. More measures are planned in a country with only about 36% of the population vaccinated. The population has resisted appeals to vaccinate, though the recent rise in cases seems to have frightened some enough to roll up their sleeves. Over the recent five weeks, Russia has almost doubled its daily rate of vaccinations, from fewer than 190,000/day to more than 350,000/day. Last week, Russia’s Deputy Prime MInister, Tatyana Golikova, announced new restrictions applying to entering cafes, stores, and cultural venues. People will have to show, via a QR code, that they are either fully vaccinated or that they have recovered from a previous case of Covid. Enforcement begins on Feb 1, 2022—meaning that those getting vaccines will have to get their first shot by mid-December or so to meet the deadline.
While Western Europe in general has significantly higher vaccination rates, their efficacy against infection has been waning after about six months. Pascal Crépey, an epidemiologist at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes de Santé Publique, says that, for the Delta variant, the number of people who are, on average, contaminated by a single individual (the R0 number) is six. With the present levels of efficacy against infection dropping down to around 50%, that translates to the still high R0 number of three. Le Monde reports: “France, says Crépey, is more or less in the same situation as in March 2020. The SARS-CoV-2 that arrived from Wuhan [in China] had an R0 of 3 at that time, close to what we would see today in the vaccinated population in the absence of other control measures.” Hence, while people should definitely get vaccinated, they should give up the fantasy that vaccinations are the magic bullet that makes the boogeyman disappear. Crépey’s conclusion is that “vaccination alone” will fail, as it is only one weapon deployed along with social distancing, protective masks, and working from home. Otherwise, it remains true that the lesser-vaccinated sections of Europe, including Germany and Austria, have led the way there, experiencing a doubling of new cases recently.
