China’s zero-Covid approach has been extremely effective at preventing Covid deaths and illness within its own borders. What developments are necessary to safely relax these measures and return to a state of normalcy?
Speaking at a vaccine summit, China’s top respiratory expert, Zhong Nanshan, laid out two prerequisites:
First, the infection fatality rate must decline from its current level of around 1% to a level of 0.1%, similar to the flu. This is a function of treatment availability and the development of effective therapeutics, including antivirals. The other factor is, of course, vaccination. While not completely eliminating the threat of death or illness, vaccination does lower the overall rate of death per infection.
Secondly, R, the reproduction rate, must be brought down to 1 to 1.5. This will primarily be achieved through vaccination.
(So far, a total of 1.125 billion people, 80% of China’s population, have been fully vaccinated. Zhong stressed that due to declining immunity over time, third doses will increasingly be needed.)
By laying out these two goals, Zhong is giving specific criteria to aim for, an image of the light at the end of the tunnel. China’s public health measures have been extremely effective, but they have also reduced person-to-person exchanges with other countries. Being able to be more open to international travel and visitors is an important flank at overcoming geopolitical machinations against the nation.
