The United States indeed set a new record with 1,417,500 new cases on Monday—about twenty times that of six weeks ago. However, in an Omicron world, what the numbers mean is more differentiated. 1. Reported cases speak more to problems in mustering a workforce for vital services (and to the increased likelihood of growing new variants), and not so much to immediate danger to human life. 2. Hospitalization figures speak more to whether the load will overwhelm hospitals and their besieged workforce. 3. Finally, figures of ICU use, speaks to how Omicron compares to Delta in terms of expected deaths. For example, we’ve now arrived at the peak level of patients in hospitals with Covid—but a significant portion of them (even up to 40% in some places) were admitted for a different reason and, afterwards, were also found to have Covid.
The U.S. has now exceeded 30% positivity nationwide. (Before Omicron, the U.S. had touched a high of 14%.) Hospitalizations hit 132,000 on Saturday and are climbing beyond any previous level. ICU usage has increased 30% since Christmas, and deaths (measured on a 7-day running average) are now climbing, rising from 1,338 people to 1,692 over the last week.
