In the latest FAO report on world grains supply and demand estimates was released on June 3, and its forecast is for a drop in total cereals output 2022 to 2023 (June-July), for the first time in four years. Cereals output in 2021/2022 was 2.784 billion tons, and the 2022-2023 estimate is for 16 million metric tons less. The FAO estimates that world cereal utilization (for consumption, biofuels, and livestock) will go down in 2022-23 by 0.1%, to what it was in 2021-2022, 2.788 billion tons, the first contraction in 20 years. Stocks are being drawn down.
Of the three main cereal crops, the largest decline is expected for maize/corn, followed by wheat, then rice. The volume of grains going onto the world markets is expected to be down 2.6% in the crop year 2022/23 from 2021/2022. That would make it 463 million metric tons, a three-year low.
Russia’s wheat harvest begins in July, and could reach 80 million tons or more, the third highest on record. Other aspects of the world wheat picture:
• The U.S. winter wheat crop (harvested later this month) is forecast as 6% down from 2021. Kansas, the foremost state, is expected to harvest 25% less area than last year, because of abandonment of cropland, given the drought.
