Defense News, without actually saying that’s what it was, published an analysis that shows why Russia can only regard the accession of Sweden and Finland into NATO as a serious threat to its own security. “With Finland and Sweden NATO membership, which is still pending, the famously shallow body of water (the Baltic Sea) would essentially become a sea surrounded almost exclusively by alliance countries, with Russia maintaining its access through naval sites in Kaliningrad in the south and the St. Petersburg region at the far eastern end,” writes author Joe Gould.
“The accession of Finland and Sweden, historically neutral nations, is expected to transform Europe’s security landscape for years to come. Their armed forces and geography would seriously complicate any further aggression Russia might want to try in the region, defense officials and national security experts say.” Yes it will, but not in the way they imagine.
What Gould didn’t say is that St. Petersburg will also be potentially threatened overland from two directions, from Estonia in the southwest and from Finland in the northwest. This is a situation that Russia is likely to respond to with what it calls “military-technical means.”
