In his latest assessment of the war in Ukraine published in Consortium News, former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter concludes that, while additional Western military aid to Ukraine is forthcoming in quantities larger than before, it will make little difference to the outcome on the ground. The problem, according to Ritter, revolves around “burn rates,” that is, how quickly losses are sustained, and “replenishment rates,” how quickly those losses are replaced. “The calculus bodes ill for Ukraine,” Ritter writes.
First off, Ritter argues, the US and NATO “appear able to sustain the quantity of weapons that have been delivered to Ukraine.” While new military aid appears to be forthcoming, “it will be late to the battle and in insufficient quantities to have a game-winning impact on the battlefield.” The same calculus applies to manpower. “Likewise, the casualty rates sustained by Ukraine, which at times reach more than 1,000 men per day, far exceed its ability to mobilize and train replacements.,” Ritter writes. “Russia, on the other hand, is in the process of finalizing a mobilization of more than 300,000 men who appear to be equipped with the most advanced weapons systems in the Russian arsenal.”
“Both Ukraine and its Western partners are struggling to sustain the conflict they initiated when they rejected a possible peace settlement in April 2022,” Ritter continues. “Russia, after starting off on its back feet, has largely regrouped, and appears poised to resume large-scale offensive operations which neither Ukraine nor its Western partners have an adequate answer for.”
“Moreover, given the duplicitous history of the Minsk Accords, it is unlikely Russia can be dissuaded from undertaking its military offensive through diplomacy. As such, 2023 appears to be shaping up as a year of continued violent confrontation leading to a decisive Russian military victory,” Ritter concludes. “How Russia leverages such a military victory into a sustainable political settlement that manifests itself in regional peace and security is yet to be seen.”
