[this is the updated version— use this— mpb]
The East African Crude oil Pipeline (EACOP)— the one the greens couldn’t stop— is now said to be “91% complete,” and politicians, bankers and other unproductive types are suddenly taking an interest in physical economics. While no hard date has been set, some say that “first oil” could happen before the end of September. Beyond that however, the oil as yet has nowhere to go.
In truth, the pipeline’s arrival— welcome as it is— has stirred up unresolved issues which could undermine any benefits, independent of any Green doings (see Wednesday’s AM Briefing). The original (2013) plan was to take the Ugandan oil through Kenya (a much shorter distance), to a totally undeveloped port at Lamu. There, Kenya hoped to build its own refinery (storage tanks were built, but nothing more) to handle the oil— not only from Uganda. but also from South Sudan, Ethiopia and (possibly) the DRC. This was the core of the Northern Development (dubbed LAPSSET for Lamu Port and South Sudan Ethiopia) Corridor, whose plans also included a (second) SGR line above the pipeline.
As part of the British imperial rage against China for actually building a railroad in Africa, London also targeted Kenya’s plans for the LAPSSET. Although Tanzania independently developed their own EACOP plan, the final decision to build the pipeline in Tanzania was reportedly made by France’s TotalEnergies. TE is a majority, 62% owner of the EACOP.
In April, 2026 it was announced that Nigeria’s Aliku Dangote would build a refinery at Tanga, Tanzania, the undeveloped port city. A month later that statement (made by Kenya President William Ruto, in Tanzania) was corrected to say that Dangote would build in Mombasa, Kenya, a developed but congested port with no supporting (pipelines, storage tanks) oil infrastructure. It was presumed that the EACOP would then have a “coda” pipeline taking the Ugandan oil— which had already traveled 1,440km— another 100km— from Tanga to Mombasa.
While people were still scratching their heads, Dangote came out in June, in his own name and said that no, for “commercial and technical considerations,” he would build his refinery in Lamu. according to a statement quoted in Barron’s. Does Dangote intend to force the issue of LAPSSET onto the table? Does he intend to force BOTH Tanzania to develop their own oil infrastructure? Will the oil now be piped another 400km up the Kenya coastline— or might there by another refinery yet to come? All questions remain to be answered.
Tanzania, for its part, doesn’t seem to be too upset at Dangote, reportedly hitting him up for fertilizer and power plant (2GW, coal) investments in the last 48 hours. He already has a cement plant in the country. Tanzania, in conjunction with Uganda, has also just made a deal with Vitol (Bahrain), to develop an unspecified “energy hub” in Tanga. As Business Insider Africa couldn’t help but notice, “[the whole thing] is increasingly taking on a pan-African dimension.”
And a lot of this can be blamed directly on Trump, and his fiasco in Iran.
