White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan delivered a speech to the annual forum of the Arms Control Association yesterday in which he called for “dialogue” with Russia and China on arms control issues but blamed all of the collapse of the arms control regime on Russia. “Russia’s actions have been dealing body blows to the post-Cold war nuclear arms control framework,” he said, somehow failing to mention the US withdrawals from the ABM Treaty, the INF Treaty and the Open Skies treaty. “But it’s not just Russia that we have to look to, to consider the full scope of the context we find ourselves in today with respect to nuclear security and stability,” he went on. “We’ve also seen a change in approach from the People’s Republic of China.”
Sullivan claimed that China is on track to have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 but “has thus far opted not to come to the table for substantive dialogue on arms control.”
“Simply put, we have not yet seen a willingness from the PRC to compartmentalize strategic stability from broader issues in the relationship,” he complained. “And that compartmentalization, as I noted before, has been the bedrock of nuclear security—indeed strategic stability—for decades.” In other words, both China and Russia are supposed to engage with the US despite the fact that the Biden Administration has chosen to be in a strategic confrontation with both of them.
Sullivan then went on to propose what the Biden administration will now do in “response” to this situation which it blames on Russia and China. The strategy boils down to two lines of effort. “First, update our deterrence capabilities and plans. And second, advance new arms control and risk reduction measures.” On the first, the modernization of all three legs of the nuclear triad will continue. But effective deterrence, Sullivan went on, “means that we have a ‘better’ approach—not a ‘more’ approach.” These include new non-nuclear long range strike capabilities and new space and cyber tools, along with strengthening US alliances with allies.
