Dmitry Trenin has weighed into the international debate surrounding the use of nuclear weapons that had been sparked by Sergei Karaganov, who heads Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and is dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. Karaganov had written the June 13 piece for Russia in Global Affairs, titled, “A Difficult but Necessary Decision.”
While Trenin acknowledges his point that fear of the use of nuclear weapons to resolve conflict is fading in policy and military circles, which is leading to the danger of their deployment, he considers that following Karaganov’s suggestion could still lead to nuclear Armageddon. Trenin proposes that Russia must instead clarify the situation in which Russia would use nuclear weapons in order to reinstate the fear of Armageddon. Trenin is a research professor at the Higher School of Economics and a lead research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations. He is also a member of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). His June 22 article “Conflict in Ukraine and Nuclear Weapons,” was written in Russia in Global Affairs and also translated into English. A different translation, produced by RT, was used by RIAC, which is the one quoted here. RT also used its own translation of Karaganov’s article, earlier.)
Trenin begins his piece by stating that while Putin has repeatedly clarified that Russian use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is based on their published doctrine, their effect as a deterrent is diminishing, even though their use has not been taken off the table. Trenin then goes on to argue that this is due in part to the fact that “the U.S. has now set itself the task—unthinkable during the Cold War—of trying to defeat another nuclear superpower in a strategically important region, without resorting to atomic weapons, but instead by arming and controlling a third country.”
The United States’s escalation strategy, now moving to F16s and long-range missiles, is likely based on their belief that the Russian leadership is bluffing on their warnings about the use of nuclear weapons—citing the fearless response of U.S. officials to the deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus.
“Such ‘fearlessness’ is a direct result of the geopolitical changes of the last three decades and the change of generations in power in the U.S. and the West in general.
“The fear of the atomic bomb, present in the second half of the twentieth century, has disappeared. Nuclear weapons have been taken out of the equation. The practical conclusion is clear: there is no need to be afraid of such a Russian response.”
