A very comprehensive (if not very sharp) study of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, published on Nov. 6 by AidData an econometrics group at William and Mary College in Virginia, tracked an extraordinary 21,000 BRI development projects in 165 low- and middle-income countries. These have been financed with the equivalent of $1.34 trillion in loans and grants from China’s Silk Road Fund; state-supported banks (especially the China Development Bank and Export-Import Bank); and Chinese commercial banks. That investment becomes nearly $2 trillion when accounting for the partnering with national or local credit institutions in the recipient countries.
The total actually reflects 20 years of development projects, because of China’s “Going Out” policy, which preceded and led into the BRI. The econometrics group, called AidData, found—as have others—that China’s development lending at $80-90 billion equivalent per year was nearly quadrupling U.S. development financing, exceeding U.S. and World Bank development loans combined in the decade to 2020. Starting in 2021 the United States has appeared to be “catching up,” and the G7 as a whole has “caught up”—in announcements. But AidData comments that G7 history is one of “over-promising and under-delivering.”
