The Israeli assessment of possible Iranian retaliation has reportedly shifted from Iran not having decided to launch a direct attack on Israel to likely attacking sometime this week. Israeli journalist Barak Ravid, writing in Axios yesterday, cited two unnamed sources “with direct knowledge of the issue” saying that Israeli intelligence community’s updated assessment is that Iran is poised to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the July 31 Haniyeh assassination in Tehran and is likely to do it within days. But one of the sources who has direct knowledge of the intelligence said the situation is “still fluid.” The assessment represents a shift, the sources said.
The Israeli intelligence community still thinks Hezbollah is likely to attack first in retaliation for the July 30 assassination if its top military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and then Iran could join with a direct attack of its own, the sources said. The sources said the attacks by Hezbollah and Iran are likely to be bigger than the one conducted by Iran last April and include the launching of missiles and drones at military targets in central Israel, including in the vicinity of civilian population centers.
Despite the growing talk of a looming large attack, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Sunday evening Aug. 11, that there were no changes to emergency guidelines for civilians. “Following the latest reports regarding Iran’s plans, we clarify that, at this stage, there are no changes to the Home Front Command guidelines,” Hagari said on X.
The Axios report has spawned many additional stories on Iran possibly attacking this week, but so far there’s still no indication as to what Iran will actually do.
