Steven Simon, a senior fellow at the Quincy Institute, a professor at Dartmouth College, and former member of the National Security Council under Clinton and Obama, wrote an op-ed for the New York Times dated July 31 saying the U.S. must put a stop to Israel as the only way to prevent a “total war” in Lebanon and beyond. He wrote that because the U.S. allowed the Israeli rampage in Gaza, it is now like trying to stop a train after it has already left the station. If the Israelis move into Lebanon as many hardliners are insisting, this would be devastating.
Simon wrote, “Washington needs to make clear to Israel that it will not sanction such a war or facilitate it by supplying munitions, joining the Israeli military in attacks against Hezbollah, or providing diplomatic cover for the deaths of civilians.” Simon continued, “The conflict would eviscerate Lebanese society, which is already in a state of economic collapse, spark a humanitarian crisis for which the United States and others will have to pick up the tab, generate increased attacks against U.S. interests in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere, and propel violence by Houthi forces in Yemen to higher levels.” And after all of the death and destruction, Simon predicts that Hezbollah would still be alive and functioning.
“War across Israel’s northern border would be appalling,” He wrote. “Hezbollah’s forces and weaponry are embedded in civilian life, in what many consider a human shield strategy; as a result, attacks could kill tens of thousands of Lebanese. The artificial intelligence targeting system used by the Israel Defense Forces and the permissive engagement rules it showed in Gaza will also take an inordinate civilian toll. Hezbollah, like Hamas, has dug underground bunkers and tunnels, so expect mayhem in urban areas.” Simon went on that Israel could target Hezbollah’s estimated 130,000 to 150,000 rockets and missiles but Hezbollah could be easily resupplied by Iran. A more likely scenario, he argues, would be for Israel to seal the border and block all shipments including food and other basic necessities.
If Israel moves into Lebanon they will not stop. The relevant Israeli circles believe that its invasion of Lebanon in 2006 was cut short by U.S. insistence that it pull out, which allowed Hezbollah to survive. It will not make that “mistake” this time. Israel was able to use a “scorched Earth” policy in Gaza and still have U.S. support, so they have every reason to continue the Gaza strategy in Lebanon.
Conditions for a surprise attack are ideal from the viewpoint of military planners: 60,000 Israeli civilians have already been evacuated from the area; the IDF already has a sizable force in position for an assault; there are plenty of reinforcements nearby; and there already has been so much shooting that the enemy would not even recognize any different strategy until the IDF was well inside the Blue Line.
The New York Times noted that the op-ed was written last week before many of the provocations that point to a much wider threat beyond Lebanon.
