The mood of London’s The Economist, the British oligarchy and City of London’s major mouthpiece, has gone from somewhat chagrined to very pessimistic on the possibility of the NATO-backed proxy forces to win the war in Ukraine against Russia. In an Oct 29 article, “Ukraine Is Now Struggling To cling On, Not To Win,” bearing the subtitle, “Russia is slicing through Ukrainian defenses in parts of the battlefield,” The Economist moots perhaps for its first time, that Ukraine’s prospects are grim.
Using U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s Oct. 21 statement that “Moscow will never prevail in Ukraine” as a foil, The Economist utters a glum picture: “Ukrainian forces have managed to hold on to Pokrovsk, an embattled town in the eastern Donbass region—an embarrassment for Mr. Putin. But elsewhere along the front, Russia is slicing its way through Ukrainian defenses. In Kupyansk in the north, its troops have cut Ukrainian formations in two at the Oskil River. In Chasiv Yar in the east, they have crossed the main Siverskyi Donets canal, after six months of trying. Farther south, Russian troops have taken high ground in and around Vuhledar, and they are moving in on Kurakhove from two directions. In Kursk, inside Russia, Ukraine has lost around half the territory it seized earlier this year.”
The Economist pinpoints that the problem that is even more serious than the loss of territory “is the steady erosion in the size and quality of Ukraine’s forces. Ukrainian units are under-strength and overstretched, worn thin by heavy casualties.”
Another issue involves armaments production. The Economist claims: “The EU claims to be making more than 1 million shells per year; Russia is making three times as many, and is also boosted by supplies from North Korea and Iran. ‘I just don’t know we can produce enough, give enough,’ says a person familiar with the flow of American aid, though a recent $800 million commitment to boost Ukraine’s indigenous drone production is welcome. ‘We have no more to give them without taking serious risks in other places.’”
Observes The Economist: “Russia cannot fight forever. But the worry among American, European and Ukrainian officials is that Ukraine’s breaking point will come first.”
The Economist concludes, citing a Pentagon source: “The gloomy mood is evident in a shift in America’s language. Senior officials like Mr. Austin still strike a confident note, promising that Ukraine will win. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say that, in practice, the ambitions of early 2023—a Ukrainian force that could take back its territory or shock Russia into talks through a well-crafted armored punch—have given way to a narrow focus on preventing defeat. ‘At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,’ says a person involved in that planning.”
