March 19, 2025 (EIRNS)—A level-headed evaluation of the potential and pitfalls of U.S.-Russian relations after the second Trump-Putin phone call on March 18, was provided by a leading Russia strategic analyst, Fyodor Lukyanov, who is the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club. In an article published in RT March 18 Lukyanov focuses on the big picture, not the details of the back-and-forth and other minutiae, as indicated by the headline: “Putin and Trump Usher in an Era of New Diplomacy.” Lukyanov writes:
“Just two months ago, the idea of serious negotiations between Russia and the United States over Ukraine—let alone a broader normalization of relations—seemed like utopia. Yet today, what once appeared impossible is happening. It proves that, with realism and a genuine will to achieve results, much can be accomplished.”
The author then issues a warning directed at both his domestic and international audience: “However, two extremes must be avoided: one is the illusion that everything will be resolved quickly and painlessly, and the other is the cynical belief that any agreement is fundamentally unattainable.”
Lukyanov notes that Russia for years has been looking for a straightforward dialogue between equals with the United States. That was impossible with Biden in the White House, but things are now changing, he argues, because of Donald Trump. “It is the White House that is driving this political and diplomatic effort. Russia, as it has reiterated many times, is responding to goodwill with a readiness for meaningful dialogue. Meanwhile, Western Europe is playing the role of the perennial spoiler—grumbling and obstructing—but lacking the military and political weight to stop or reverse the process. As for Ukraine, it resists, knowing its survival depends on American support. Despite its reluctance, Kiev is being told behind the scenes by its European backers that following Washington’s lead is inevitable.”
Lukyanov also emphasizes the danger of nuclear war. “Moreover, Trump has long feared nuclear war—something he has spoken about publicly for decades, even before he entered politics. He blames Joe Biden for bringing the world to the brink of nuclear escalation without a clear objective. This concern acts as a moderating force in Trump’s approach to Russia. While he may exert pressure, he will avoid steps that could provoke further escalation.”
Lukyanov focuses on what he considers the central issue. “Above all, the most important development is that real diplomacy has returned. Behind closed doors, intensive negotiations are unfolding—complex, high-stakes discussions with no predetermined outcomes. … For the first time in decades, Washington and Moscow are engaging as equals, navigating the complexities of power politics without the ideological baggage of the past. And that, more than anything, is what makes this moment so significant. For the first time in years, there is a real chance of finding a resolution—because finally, there are real negotiations.”