With the sudden volatility upending business as usual in the U.K.—by which I mean momentarily diverting the establishment’s attention from devising brutal strategies to apply geopolitics to preserve the empire—the British press was filled with scenarios forecasting the end of the Starmer government. Some of these were based on polling, though one must realize that polls can be notoriously manipulated by how the question is posed. Others were built around gossip which exposed the sycophancy of underlings, or creative use of horoscopes.
But in my effort to get a reliable forecast, I turned to City of London bookmakers to find out what they were seeing. It turned out to be interesting, as the two bookmakers I spoke to were quite well informed and aware of how policy changes are often driven by the establishment through sophisticated techniques designed to produce profits for those who run the gaming “industry.”
Here’s what I discovered: From the moment the focus of attention became the case of Peter Mandelson, his fall from grace at the elbow of Tony Blair to become the scapegoat for every malady confronting the man on the street, the betting odds turned sharply against Starmer, the Prime Minister whom Mandelson’s machinations placed in 10 Downing Street.
Beginning early Monday morning, Feb. 9, when the press was dominated by the story of the resignation of Mandelson’s partner in the coup that toppled Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, Morgan McSweeney, the odds of Starmer surviving the year fell at an accelerating rate. My new friend said it is unusual to see such a sharp drop in support for a figure on whom bets are being placed. He reported that:
1. 90% of the bets being made are that he won’t make it to 2027.
2. The bookmakers now project there is a 70% chance he will be ousted in 2026.
He compared the volume of bets to that posted on former British Prime Minister Liz Truss lasting longer than a head of lettuce—which he referred to as the “gold standard” in predicting popular opinion! Starmer, he concluded, is on a similar downward slope. He cited two developments as evidence for this conclusion:
1. The “brain trust” of Labour was in emergency meetings overnight, according to another source.
2. The crisis is deepening, as the likely replacement from Labour is Angela Rayner, who is not popular; the Tories have no one; and support for Nigel Farage is falling, as it has become possible that he could be the next PM, and many bettors find that prospect frightening!
