According to the May 8 monthly Food Price Index by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Iran War has driven world food prices in April to the highest levels since the beginning of the Ukraine War in February 2022. Rising prices month-on-month are seen for the last three months in all categories tracked, including vegetable oils, meat, cereals, dairy, and others.
Vegetable oil prices jumped by 5.9% in April, blamed on higher demand for biofuels caused by the shortage of gas and its soaring prices. Prices across all meat categories rose, with beef prices hitting a record high, about 7.8% higher than April last year, and poultry also seeing significant price increases.
Month by month, prices can be expected to rise higher, until and unless there is intervention to provide the fertilizers, chemicals, diesel, and other inputs, as the crop and livestock seasonal cycles proceed. The planet’s largest volume of wheat, corn, and rice—staples providing over half the daily calories for the world’s 8.3 billion people—is currently grown in the Northern Hemisphere. Across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, high prices and short supplies of essential agricultural inputs are impacting planting and harvest times, which will lead to shortages stemming from lower yields, unplanted land, and other disruptions. China, and to a lesser extent Russia, stand as an exception. China has secured its provisions for fertilizer, fuels, and other inputs, for example, by making its own nitrogen fertilizer from coal.
