For the upcoming 2026-2027 world crop year, the volume of production of the world’s top three staple grains —rice, wheat and corn—is expected to drop by some 48 million tons, as projected in the May 12 monthly “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” (WASDE), issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
World production of “total grains” (rice, wheat, and coarse grains—corn/maize, sorghum, millet, others) during the 2026-27 period will fall from 2994 million metric tons, down to 2946 mmt. For reference, the metric for world sufficiency in these staple grains for 8.3 billion people, is in the range of 4 billion metric tons produced each year. However, world harvests of staple grains have not totalled even 3 bmt yearly, and millions of people lack enough food.
The USDA estimate is very conservative. Sec. of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, at her press conference releasing the report did not even reference the global shocks to farming and food from the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. However, the USDA’s estimates are in line with the grim reports coming out of the other authorities that track agriculture, including the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome, and the International Grains Council, in London.
All sources are predicting significant decreases in coming crop cycles in planting and harvests in both hemispheres, reflecting the destructive impact of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, from the shortages of fuel, fertilizer, chemicals, and logistics supplies, and the hyperinflation of costs of production. The USDA breakdown for the three basic grains: