Fortune has publicized a study by Oxford Economics, which asserts that the United States labor market could become “backward”; that is, the required number of new jobs created each month, in order to keep unemployment stable, could become negative as the U.S. labor force shrinks. Already, the Oxford Economics study claims that that required new job creation number is no more than 50,000/month, whereas it was considered to be about 150,000/month until a couple of years ago; and it will become negative by 2028.
This is due, first, to the Trump Administration’s prevention, by expulsions and expulsion threats against immigrant groups, of “normal” immigrant additions to the labor force, which have in this century reached 1.5 million/year. In the year ended June 2026, for example, the U.S. labor force lost more than 1 million members, net. In addition, there are still large numbers of Baby Boomers retiring, from the second wave of that Boom, who were born after 1955. While the study does not mention it, there are additional, young labor force members who have not succeeded in entering and staying in the labor force, due to only episodic employment.
A July payroll employment report is due on Friday of this week.
