Jon Wellinghoff, the former chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has been warning that the transformers at electric substations are a weak link in the U.S. power grid, and by disabling 9 substations a nationwide blackout could occur which could last 18 months. A mid-August report in the New York Times Magazine covered this in some depth, which has since been picked up widely, often as a scare story about domestic terrorism causing an “18 month blackout”, when also, just the aging of the grid, import-dependence for transformers, and other factors are equally or even more of a risk.
Wellinghoff said that it did not matter which substations were disabled in an attack as long as it was one of the ten most critical substations in each of the three distribution districts across the country. He first commissioned FERC to study the transformer issue in 2014 after an attack on a substation in California’s Bay Area, which left bullet holes in the cooling system, causing the transformer to shut-down. The electric power system only represents 7% of the U.S. economy, but without the grid, the entire economy would grind to a halt. Many of the 55,000 substations have seen increased security to prevent damage by gunfire, but most of these facilities are still vulnerable to attacks by drones.
Many components of the power grid are well past their expected lifespan with about half of the large transformers at substations and about 75% of smaller transformers (often seen on the top of electric poles) needing replacement. The U.S. is 80% dependent on foreign made transformers, which are on chronic back order. On Aug. 26, President Trump issued an Executive Order that U.S. power companies must cease buying foreign transformers, on the fantasy logic that this will cause domestic production to grow.
