Yesterday, the average price of diesel in the U.S. went over $6/gallon for the first time in history, and raced up to $6.27 before the end of the day. Diesel, being key not only for transportation and construction but also agriculture, has a multiplier effect, greatly increasing the risk of a further spread of blockages in production and rises in inflation. It is a trap that President Trump has fallen into, and yesterday he fell in deeper with his attempt to spin the narrative. He posted the claim: “The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran,” as if the blockages of the Straits of Hormuz and Bar al Mandeb were not the central issue.

The choking off of Saudi oil from passing out of the Red Sea, along with last week’s hit on the Saudi’s 750-mile East-West crude oil pipeline, has escalated what had been the Hormuz oil supply crisis. In June, Trump responded to a smaller crisis by declaring that he didn’t want the situation turning his administration into a ‘Herbert Hoover’ problem. That was enough to impel him to sign onto a workable 14-point arrangement with Iran. While it took him a day or two to blow up that arrangement, yesterday’s reaction by Trump pre-empted even a day or two of sanity.

As former CIA analyst Larry Johnson pointed out, the price of Brent crude went from $67 prior to the February assault on Iran to $117 in April; it dropped back when the fighting has slowed down; and it has shot upwards again the last week or so. All this is coherent with the war on Iran, not with the attacks by Ukraine or Russia upon oil pipelines or refineries.