Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs threw a monkey wrench into the NATO/EU “Russia is about to attack Europe” narrative though probably not intending to during an interview with Polish press agency PAP. “We all agree that a large-scale operation against NATO and against the Baltic states is not possible at the moment. Russia is fighting in Ukraine,” he said. Latvian intelligence has detected no signs of a military build-up, he added. “That could change in future… But right now the clear message is that we do not expect any military operation against us,” he said. Rinkēvičs’ statement contrasts with an assessment of French intelligence reported at the beginning of the week claiming that Russia would be ready to attack Europe by the autumn of 2027 rather than later.

But signs of a Russian hybrid war against Europe are everywhere, Rinkēvičs claimed, pointing to alleged sabotage, cyberattacks, information operations, and efforts to weaken public support for Ukraine, along with Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace over Latvia and other allied states. “We agree that so-called hybrid actions are intensifying, that we need to cooperate to counter them,” he said. Pressed on whether intelligence points to a coming surge in such attacks, Rinkēvičs said only “assumptions and assessments” exist, declining to discuss specifics.