The three state parliament elections in Germany’s east are having a sobering effect in the west of the country as well. A Forsa poll conducted for the Koelner Stadtanzeiger news daily on where the parties stand now in the state of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW), which will have elections in April 2027, found the distance between the governing CDU and the opposition AfD shrinking by five points: the CDU has 29 percent now, against 22 for the AfD. The Greens, a coalition partner of NRW Minister President Hendrik Wuest, are at 18%, the SPD at 14%, Die Linke at 8 percent. This would be the likely outcome, were there elections next Sunday.

The Forsa poll also asked about NRW voters’ choice if there were national elections next Sunday. Here, the CDU was found at an all-time low for 80 years with only 22 percent, whereas the AfD is at 24 percent, Greens, SPD and Linke follow with 18, 14, and 12 percent respectively. NRW, the most populous state of Germany, is the home state of Chancellor and CDU party chairman Friedrich Merz.

Another poll by Forsa among voters from all 16 German states found 89 percent dissatisfied with Merz and 55 percent in favor of a Merz replacement, against 40 saying he should stay in office. In terms of party competence to solve the country’s problems, 13 percent said they think the AfD has it, against 10 percent believing in the CDU; 8 percent named the Greens, 6 percent each for the SPD and Linke. A solid 54 percent said they don’t believe any party could do it. In terms of voter preference, 27% named the AfD, 20% the CDU, 17% the Greens and 12 percent each the SPD and Linke.