Although crude oil prices fell back (to $100/barrel!) after the FOMC meeting, diesel prices will keep rising, as oil analysts have acknowledged, and reached a U.S. national average of $6.40/gallon on Sept. 17. OilPrice.com indicated back on Sept. 10, “The tight global diesel market is set to further tighten in the coming months and keep fuel prices high, raising the prices of all goods and threatening the inflation targets of the central banks.”

This is independent demand in the crude oil market, which consists only of oil refineries, because the physical capacity of refineries is down—under attack in Russia and Ukraine, and low in the United States and Europe due to major oil companies not wanting to build or add any new capacity. Because of the great economic importance of diesel fuel for transportation, industry, and agriculture, what this means for the world, unless there is a return to peace and economic development very soon, is a global food crisis on the near-term horizon, perhaps worse than that of 2005-2008.